Follow us on Twitter

Click here to see our latest updates on Twitter!

Be first to know

Click here to subscribe to our RSS feed!

11.01.2012 in Elections 2012, Featured, Politics by Adam Bitely 38

Has New Hampshire launched Ron Paul as the leading ‘Anti-Romney’ GOP candidate?

Ron PaulBy Adam Bitely — As attention turns away from New Hampshire to South Carolina, Ron Paul is on the move.

Not Rick Santorum. Nor Jon Huntsman.  But it is now Paul who stands in the best position to become the only candidate that can challenge Mitt Romney.  Paul consistently has had support in the double digits in each state that the GOP nomination contests have been held.

The results from New Hampshire show Ron Paul broke 20 percent of the vote for the second straight time, decisively winning second place. In Iowa, Paul finished strongly in third place with 21.4 percent of the vote behind Santorum and Mitt Romney who were virtually tied. And a recent poll shows Paul and Romney narrowly beating Obama nationally.

With another strong finish by Paul, a clear picture of who the leading “anti-Romney” candidate is may have emerged. And the rest of the “anyone-but-Romney” field will continue to seesaw back and forth in the upcoming contests.

Voters searching for a “conservative” alternative to Romney have been bouncing around for months with various candidates. From Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Santorum, it is becoming increasingly clear that Paul is the most organized and prepared candidate to oppose Romney in the long haul of the GOP nomination contests.

Santorum does not have a sustainable campaign operation in place. He will become the 2012 version of Mike Huckabee with his fifth place finish in New Hampshire leaving him to fight for the life of his campaign in South Carolina (click here for the most recent polling data) and possibly Florida (click here for the most recent polling data).

And since Huntsman had a decent showing in New Hampshire, easily dispatching Santorum and Gingrich, the political chattering class will now be focusing new attention “finding out” who Jon Huntsman is and creating the narrative that he is now a serious contender in the race. This could lead to a surge in support for the former Utah Governor that will further suck oxygen away from the campaigns of the other “anti-Romney” candidates, and perhaps Romney himself.

The possibility of a rising Huntsman, if only for a week, will be enough to further spread chaos in the “anti-Romney” field. Of course, Paul stands to benefit the most from this scenario, as his supporters are the most loyal of any of the GOP candidates, and he would stand to only gain supporters, not lose them, after a string of strong performances at the ballot box. Further, supporters of the other “anti-Romney” campaigns have been flighty, consistently changing the candidate that they support week-in and week-out. Paul has had a consistent level of support that has only grown and not faded.

As attention turns towards South Carolina, a whole new situation begins to develop.

Santorum, Gingrich and possibly Perry will be battling over who is the more conservative and “electable” candidate against Romney in South Carolina. The result will be a continued fracturing of conservative support divided amongst several candidates.

Florida will prove even more difficult for the “anti-Romney” field. Since the primary is a winner-take-all for the GOP delegates for the Republican National Convention, it will only matter if you finish in first place. Romney appears to have a strong lead there at the moment, and if it appears that he still does as the Florida primary approaches, it will seem foolish for other candidates to spend much time and resources in a state where the only thing they have to gain is generating some media hype. At that point in time, it will make more sense for campaigns to focus their attention to primaries and caucuses where the delegates are divided out proportional to the votes they receive.

And when it comes to proportional elections, Paul stands to gain more than the rest of the “anti-Romney” field. Because he is demonstrating a consistent double-digit base of support, he will always pick up delegates wherever he competes. Paul, like Romney, had a good ballot qualification program and will appear on more ballots than Gingrich, Santorum, Huntsman and Perry.  As a result, Paul will be able to compete in more states.

That is not to suggest that Ron Paul is the only candidate that is capable of stopping Mitt Romney from getting the GOP nomination, but Paul does have the most likely path to mount any type of serious challenge to Romney over the long term.

The odds may be long, but at the moment, Ron Paul, unlike the other “anti-Romney” candidates, appears to be the only candidate moving in the right direction.

Adam Bitely is the Editor-in-Chief of NetRightDaily.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdamBitely.

Related Articles

  • Pingback: NetRight Daily » Must Reads for January 11

  • http://www.wakeupamerica.com/constitutionalbelievers Constitutional Believers

    I
    Applaud You All for your Gallant Efforts for the election campaign of
    Congressman Dr. Ron Paul, He is my choice for President in 2012 and I am a
    Mainstream Republican! However POTUS Ron Paul will need the majority support in
    the House and Senate for all of his plans to get implemented to Save Our
    Republic. Mr. Paul has worked tirelessly against the progressive elites and
    their effort to systematically absolve our GOD given rights and freedom, ruin
    our countries faith, circumvent the laws and make our country’s Founding Documents
    Obsolete. When I first found WAKE UP AMERICA site I felt it was Divinely
    Ordained for me to do so. Because the efforts of many out way the efforts of
    one, But One Person Can Make A Difference! Much like if you were to take .01
    penny and save it, to start and then take .02 pennies to save the next day,
    then save .04 pennies on the third day, then .08 pennies the fourth day, .16
    pennies the fifth day and then double the efforts every day afterwards for 30
    days you will have over a 5 Million Dollars To be accurate you would have
    $5,368,709.12 Talk about taking the campaign to a different level! What type of
    support do you think we could provide POTUS Ron Paul with then? Well if you
    only had a plan that worked through the duplication of one’s efforts much like
    the saving of the penny and doubling it for 30 days. That opportunity right
    here! http://www.wakeupamerica.com/constitutionalbelievers We are in the prelaunch phase through
    January 15 2012. Anyone can start for free during the prelaunch stage. The
    investment to start your business is temporarily
    waived until the end of the Pre-Launch, then you will need to decide if
    you would like to go forward or not. If so, the fee is payable then and you
    keep your organization that you have built. So you can grow your business until
    the official public launch which is to be on January 15th 2012 so
    The POTENTIAL IS HUGE! Here are more links to information that you want to
    hear. Take Care and GOD BLESS! One last question to ask yourself, What if this
    does work much like doubling of the pennies, What could you gain before the
    2012 election, or Not Gain if you pass on this Huge Opportunity!

    If We
    Don’ WAKE UP AMERICA Now!!! This Is Our Future Now! http://www.infowars.com/government-censors-document-revealing-plans-to-wage-war-on-americans/  

    This
    Future is already here! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6nchQl9JDg&feature=bulletin

    America
    is on the precipice of demise! http://www.inflation.us/videos.html

    Recorded
    Business Overview Call:

    http://tinyurl.com/WakeUpAmericaOverviewConfCall
    The Power of Pre-Launch Video:

    http://Vimeo.com/PowerOfPreLaunch 

    Take
    Care and GOD BLESS!

     Sincerely

     Constitutional Believers

     Mr. Harris

     ConstitutionalBelievers@hot.rr.com

  • animal

    yes they did.  ron paul  is a real american    we need to get all back home  get back to making tvs cell phones   ect ect   i hate all big corps that when to china   i dont buy  from them  hope the ceos   go to jail that did it

  • Anonymous

    Dr Paul HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE ANTI-ROMNEY CANDIDATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE NEED DR PAUL IN THE WH TO CUT THE SPENDING AND THE SIZE OF THIS CORRUPT GOVT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    HE IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE THAT WILL DO WHAT HE SAID DURING THIS TOO LONG CAMPAIGN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Joseph-RonPaul-Elster/1732228403 Joseph RonPaul Elster

    Finally.   The site ‘Americans for LIMITED Government’ realizes what millions of American people do…. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate to choose, if you are SERIOUS about limiting government intrusion into people’s lives!   I am a 47 year old, and many of his supporters are 1st and 2nd time voters.   The people who read about what Ron Paul stands for, his consistency, his anti-tax, anti-war and anti-government message… are TIRED of the same old politics which have been plaguing our country for years (BOTH PARTIES).   This is America’s wake up call….. or it’s final curtain!

  • Anonymous

    Yes, he will probably do what he said he would do like cutting all relations with Israel, letting Iran develop nuclear weapons,  decimate the military, open our borders to all the illegals, stop social security and even welcome the aliens from God knows where.  Yes he would do all those things and more that is why we do not need an over the hill wacko libertarian for President.  The one we have now is bad enough but with Ron Paul, we would go from DUMB to DUMBER.  WAKE UP IDIOT!!!!!!!

  • Anonymous

    THIS COMMENT IS TO ALL THE SUPPORTERS OF  RON PAUL.  I would like to know where you all got your education?  Apparently you didn’t learn very much.  If you have half an ounce of intelligence, go to Google and look up the political history of Ron Paul.  He is a LIBERTARIAN pretending to be a Republican.  That idiot would legalize everything from pot to heroin; give all illegal aliens full social security (until he stops it).  That man is dangerous because he is a fool.  And when he talks about his military service, he was only a 1st Lt flight surgeon and was never in any combat.  So I urge all you Ron Paul supporters, get some smarts before you think he is the Messiah.

  • Christianitalian

    Rick Santorum 2012 the only real Conservative left on the short list.

     ron paul are you serious? look up what this nut job believes in he is crazy. The only thing he has mostly right is the constitution, everything else he is straight up bat crazy on.

  • alexfsch

    I have a bachelors in economics and I have read extensively on Paul’s opinions and closely followed his voting record.  He is far closer to what Republicans used to be (as well as believing in very nearly the exact same principles as Jefferson and Madison) than today’s neoconservatives.  

    Regardless, before you challenge anyone’s intelligence, I’ll challenge yours: you don’t know much about Ron Paul.  Paul wouldn’t legalize drugs – he would leave that up to the states to decide as defined by the Constitution, since it regulating drugs doesn’t fall into the 17 enumerated powers of Congress.  Regarding immigration, I have no idea where you got the social security remark, but please source yourself there so I can look at it.  You only have to go so far as his campaign website to find out what Paul REALLY thinks about illegal immigration: http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/immigration.  

    People like you are dangerously spreading misinformation.  Unless more Americans wake up, we will get either Obama or a candidate that isn’t Ron Paul, and either option will continue to grow government, spending, taxes, the welfare state, and keep us at war.  Debt just passed 100% of GDP.  Do you want to end up like Greece?

  • alexfsch

    Such as….?

  • alexfsch

    1. It’s not cutting relations – it’s cutting all foreign aid to all countries.  Israel can easily stand on its own, but should the need arise, Congress can always vote for a war and Paul will carry it out.  Why should we continue to send billions to foreign countries?  In exchange for what?
    2. The best way to prevent war is to trade freely.  The bigger the trade partner you become with a foreign country, the less likely they are to want to disrupt you economy with a war.  If Congress wants to go to war with Iran, Congress is welcome to say so and Paul will carry it out.
    3. Go read Paul’s stance on illegal immigration.  You are spreading misinformation.
    4. Paul does not want to cease social security for those who have already paid into it.  However, he would offer the opportunity for the younger generation to opt out of it and into a private alternative.  Personally, I don’t ever expect to see the money I am paying into that worthless program and am preparing for that inevitable scenario.  
    5. Why do we need tens of thousands of troops on the ground worldwide in 160+ countries?

    There is only a very small difference between what your complaints show your opinions to be (pro foreign aid, pro invasion of Iran, pro military growth, anti-immigration, pro welfare state), the Democrat stance, and the stance of Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, etc. on those issues.  Immigration is really the only difference.  Wake up – you are being blinded by big government Republicans that are so close as makes no difference to the same thing that we’ve had since Obama got elected!

  • wecare

    Amen
    Ron Raul is the ONLY candidate that can help us

  • Larry Baker

    Anyone that thinks the ideals of our Founding Fathers are not important today and the Constitution is not the law of the land in America is a mental midget!  To prefer a RINO to Ron Paul is just stupid!  Every stance Ron Paul has is Constitutionally sound, anyone that thinks that’s nutty doesn’t know what he/she is talking about!  Anyone that thinks Ron Paul is radical, must be too young to remember the fairly recent past or they have been asleep so long they don’t know what’s going on

  • Guest

    The ACLU agrees with you completely they rate Dr Paul more liberal than Obama.   Somehow his supporters are making him into something he isn’t.   He blames the U.S, for 9-11, wants open borders, legalised drugs, prostitution or whatever else you want to do.   In more tah 20 years in the House he has passed, but one bill. He is a lbertarian not a republican.

  • Guest

    I think that would be Romney, he scored a 0 on the recent ACLU liberal ratings poll, Ron Paul was the most liberal 18 and Obama scored 16.

  • Agnes Tillerson

    As a Constitutional Conservative Republican, in that order, I cannot support Ron Paul for the nomination. He is too extreme in many of his foreign policy issues. He does support open usage of mind-boggling drugs if you read many of his speeches.As a registered nurse who worked with drug users,open usage would destroy the youth and others.We need to support a strong military for our national security in this age of terrorism and that is a Constitutional requirement of Congress. I can support some of his issues and hope these will be addressed by the final Republican nomine. I am NOT anti-Romney and cannot believe that this is a movement by Republicans. Sounds like one Obama will carry on with. Wake-up to this..we cannot have Obummer win as this will be the end of our freedom.

  • alexfsch

    I don’t agree with everything the ACLU does, but the takeaway from
    that rating is that Paul is better at following the Constitution than Obama is.
     I’m disappointed that you feel that way about following the Constitution
    and would rather pick and choose the sections you follow instead of the whole
    thing, similar to how Democrats behave.  

     

    I’m not terribly surprised, though, since the rest of your
    statements are equally misinformed:

     

    Ron Paul on 9/11:

    “Well, I think there is an influence. And that’s
    exactly what, you know, the 9/11 Commission said, that’s what the DOD has said
    and that’s also what the CIA has said and that’s what a lot of researchers have
    said. … America is you and I and we didn’t cause it, the average American
    didn’t cause it. … I’m saying [American foreign] policies have an affect but
    that’s a far cry from blaming America.” 

     

    Here is the Prime Minister of Israel agreeing with Ron Paul on his
    foreign policy stance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ljxQn5nm8A 

     

    For a clarification on Ron Paul’s stance on immigration and drugs,
    see my comment above, which you obviously didn’t read.  For a clarification on his stance on
    prostitution, also see the section drugs. 
    If it’s not an enumerated power of Congress in the Constitution, Paul
    doesn’t want to handle it at the federal level – it’s a state or local issue.  As the Constitution states, “the powers not
    delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the
    States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people…”

  • Dean

    God, let’s hope not!

  • alexfsch

    The Prime Minister of Israel agrees with Ron Paul’s foreign policy stance, as does much of the rest of the world.  

    Open usage has existed in Portugal for over a decade and the rate of drug-related overdoses   as well as the rate of HIV cases decreased in just the first five years.  Perhaps treatment centers instead of prisons is actually the answer?

    Congress is Constitutionally responsible for voting a war into action.  Paul will carry it out if that happens.  I don’t think we have much to worry about there, with as many politicians as we have in Washington that are chomping at the bit to invade Iran (but not North Korea, even though they supposedly pose the same threat.  Hmm… wonder what their motive is?).  

    Romney and Obama are basically the same person, FYI.  They are the same on war, on healthcare, on stimulus, and bailouts.  They both like the Patriot Act, NDAA and other bills that violate civil liberties outlined in the Constitution.  They are both corporatists – in it for the big companies and forget the small business folks.  Neither one really likes guns, although Romney tries to cover that up.  They are not the same on abortion and Romney claims he will repeal Dodd-Frank.  That’s really about it.

  • Jwatersphd

    Alex, thanks for your (mostly) straightforward posts. In the midst of all the vituperation and name calling, you stand out as someone who thinks about these things and sticks to the issues. I’m not a Paul supporter, however, just because my impression is that he really seems to have no program to deal with modern complexities, such as the health care problem. His ideas seem rooted in a country that was light years from what we have now in terms of big issues, for which we do need, i hate to say, social solutions and that usually means some type of government solution, since there’s no one else to do it. Also, i will say that, like you, i didn’t think social security was ever going to be important to me so i took other steps. But now that i’m about to go on it (in February) i’ll be getting over $2,000 a month and still working. That’s $24,000 a year; there were not many years when i paid that much in FICA over the past over 45 years of working life. With small adjustments, it can easily be solvent well into the future – remove the absurd cap on the self employment tax..So, until i see answers from Paul and you to these issues, i must withhold my support for him. Actually, as far as i can see, with the exception of the recent abolition of due process in the defense authorization bill, which is in reality more of the same of the crap we got with the patriot act, i can’t see that much wrong with what Obama is doing, to the extent that he can do anything at all with all the right wing and Republican obstructionism. If he hadn’t wasted his time trying to please them, we’d be much further along in the recovery and the health care system would be out from under the domination of insurance companies. What’s you take on Ron Paul’s solution to the health care crisis and the problems of elderly poverty that social security was enacted, successfully, to prevent? How about another problem: How would Ron Paul have dealt with the pollution crisis that the EPA was developed to remedy? We had smog, rivers on fire; those were BIG problems that Jefferson, Madison, etc. could have never anticipated. Oh, yes, i know i’m going to get the usual astute comments, like what rock did i crawl out from under, libtard, libturd, socialist, etc. drank the Kool aid from most of the crowd that visits these pages, but i’m sure you won’t respond in such an infantile way. Nice talking with you.

  • max

    Swan75 you are a nut dont put us down because we dont agree with you where did you get your education from lib school

  • Anonymous

    You are right! What Rock did you crawl out from? 
    You are obvioiusly a White House Staffer and write well. I am sure some people will believe your garbage! If you are
    an American, you are a Traitor to your Country!

  • Drjohngalt

    Yes, Ron Paul is a Libertarian, and that is what makes him preferable to both Obama and the other candidates looking to run against Obama. Of all our choices, Dr. Paul is the ONLY candidate who is NOT a Statist, and would at least make the effort needed to bring about the changes to restore fiscal responsibility and control of the Federal government BACK to the people as the Constitution set out to assure.

  • Drjohngalt

    Dr. Ron Paul is the only candidate who not only understands that our individual freedoms are not meant to be provided by the Federal government but only protected by the powers given it through the consent of the governed as defined by the U.S. Constitution which is meant to live through the amendment process, NOT reinterpretation by Justices who are appointed based upon their political agenda in bringing about change with or without the consent of the governed.

  • Drjohngalt

    That would be most every school in the U.S. since the creation of the Department of Education under Carter.

  • Drjohngalt

    So if Paul wins the nomination, you would vote for Obama? While I am not a supporter of drug usage, the “war on drugs” has done little to reduce drug usage but has cost quite a lot. States would still have the right to make laws related to drugs as per the Constitution which is what Dr. Paul is trying to bring the Federal government back to being under the control of. Ron Pauls banner should say “Reinstating government BY the people”.

  • http://www.wakeupamerica.com/constitutionalbelievers Constitutional Believers

    We as Americans need to understand what the difference is between the truth and the
    Worlds Military Industrial War Complex Regime’s Propaganda! That same Military
    industrial War Complex Regime that President Eisenhower warned us about on January 17, 1961 AD to date almost 51 year ago. As Americans we are still ignoring this warning, So Now They Are “The Powers That Be” Either you believe this or not, What you see in most of the political spectrum is all just an illusion created by “TPTB” to keep the people of the world entertained with the puppet shows just enough to distract you so “TPTB” can work on the agenda of the One World Government or the New World Order. And They Will Not Stop Until We Are All Enslaved! With the exception of a few palliations that openly try to warn us, when they mention this very old cliché “The Devil Is In The Details”, Congressman Dr. Ron Paul is the only candidate left that will Not perpetuate their evil agenda, by returning back to the Foundation of this Great Nation.
    Returning Back To the Divinely Inspired Creation, The Constitution of The United States of America!
    Now, you can help make the corrections to Our Republic, Help Save Our Constitution!                                                  
    When the people fear the government, that’s Tyranny!
    When the government fears the people, that’s Liberty!
    All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing!
    Now Is the Time for All Good Men and Women to come to the aid of Our Country!
    Make the Difference and Take a Stand with other Good Men and Women.
    Info @ http://www.wakeupamerica.com/constitutionalbelievers
    If We Don’ WAKE UP AMERICA Now!!! This Is Our Future Now! http://www.infowars.com/government-censors-document-revealing-plans-to-wage-war-on-americans/   
    This Future is already here! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6nchQl9JDg&feature=bulletin
    America is on the precipice of demise! http://www.inflation.us/videos.html

    Take Care and GOD BLESS The Whole World!
    Sincerely
    Mr. Harris
    ConstitutionalBelievers@hot.rr.com

  • Jwatersphd

    Oh, i could respond on your level of discourse and say, take your head out of wherever you’ve put it that the light doesn’t shine, but it will suffice to say i’m not a white house staffer, and if you would like to bring charges of treason, be my guest, but you are wasting your time.

  • Drjohngalt

    Where in the world are you getting your information? Or are you just making it up yourself?

  • Jwatersphd

    Well, that’s great, Dr. John. Don’t you feel your individual freedom is protected when the government makes it safe to breathe the air and drink the water, when it provides you courts of law to resolve disputes, and when it embodies the rule of law, not the rule of individual men? Dr. Ron Paul has some interesting ideas, but they do not address the inevitable problems that occur when people try to live together in the same space at the same time, and your pursuing your “freedoms” infringes on my welfare. Or shall we say, Exxon Mobil or BP just “happens” to cause a massive oil spill? Then who’s going to protect your freedom? Don’t count on it happening spontaneously or because Exxon or BP cares one whit about you. All they care about is their profit, and that’s how it should be. So, we need power to control them. Frankly, i don’t think he’s even thought about that to the depth that is required in a complex society where the chain of cause and effect is not always obvious; a lot of things happen that we don’t anticipate, even if we are trying to be nice. We’re not living in colonial america anymore. There’s no place else to go and pursue our individual freedoms, so there’s going to have to be some controls here. You seem to think it’s obvious what “the governed” would consent to, and they’d all agree . . . but, hey! sometimes they don’t. What then?  

  • mike88

    You appear to be under the belief that the Government making the determination as to what can or can’t go into your body is a good thing. Well answer me this please who ownes your body You or the Government, who should be making the determination as to what goes into your body You or the Government. You seem to be under the assumption that being a Libertarian is a bad thing, what in your opion is bad about it. The belief that your body belongs to you and not the Government. Another thing this is a false assumption by you that Ron Paul wants to give Social Security to Illegal aliens, the only thing that is dangerous is people like you that likes to spread lies, and rumors.  

  • Pingback: NetRight Daily » Must Reads for January 12

  • PatriotDiva

    Ron Paul is the only true conservative running. He’s the only one who reveres and would uphold the constitution.

  • PatriotDiva

    With all due respect, you are misinformed. Please go to Ron Paul’s website to get the real story. All Dr. Paul is saying is that issues of drug use, same-sex marriage, etc. should be left to the individual states, not the federal government. His foreign policy makes a lot of sense. He promises not to go to war without a clear mission and purpose. And, going to war would have to be in the interest of national security. With regard to Iran getting nukes, he is against invading a sovreign nation, even if they are making threats. In other words, he opposes pre-empitve strikes.

  • PatriotDiva

    Apparently Swann, you are the one who is uninformed. It is painfully obvious by your post. You are believing what the media (both left and right) is telling you. Ron Paul does not support drug abuse, he just recognizes that the so-called war on drugs has been a complete failure. All it did was waste more taxpayer’s dollars. That’s why he’s against the war on drugs. Please inform yourself.

  • PatriotDiva

    Guest you are deliberately spreading misinformation, and it’s obvious to this extremely well informed highly educated lady.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MHPCWLESEAR7CCPRNWMQ66QN3I James S

    I wish people would stop spreading nonsense about Ron Paul. If you want the truth just go to his website … FACT! you’re not going to get anything resembling the truth from the mainstream. We need Ron Paul,and NOT more of the same.

  • Anonymous

    Please call each campaign today and demand that these four candidates stop stonewalling gun owners on important Second Amendment issues.

    Make your calls right now:

    Newt Gingrich:678-973-2306Mitt Romney: 803-575-0698 Rick Santorum:603-518-5199 Rick Perry: 855-887-5627

Back to top

Copyright © 2008-2012 NetRight Daily