08.18.2016 1

LA Times/USC poll: After Milwaukee, Trump jumps 10 points among blacks

TrumpMilwaukeeBump8-18-16

By Robert Romano

After delivering his Milwaukee speech promoting law and order on Aug. 16, Donald Trump has increased support among blacks by nearly 10 points — the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll finds.

In the speech, Trump asked for blacks’ support — “I am asking for the vote of every African-American citizen struggling in our country today who wants a different future” — and they responded.

The result marked a jump from 4.8 percent support on Aug. 15 — to 14.3 percent on Aug. 16 and 14.6 percent on Aug. 17.

That is nothing short of a political earthquake, representing more than a million potential voters suddenly swinging in Trump’s direction. That’s huge.

Democrats got 95 percent of the vote of blacks in 2012, 99 percent in 2008, 93 percent in 2004 and 95 percent in 2000, according to Gallup. It is a vital constituency for Democrats. One they simply cannot win without.

Even though he would still lose the vast majority of those votes, if a swing that dramatic were to hold true on Election Day, Democrats would be wiped out in a massive landslide. They would be roadkill.

Milwaukee and the LA Times/USC poll is a dramatic turn of events, potentially forecasting one of the most historic shifts in electoral behavior in a generation.

The Hillary Clinton campaign must be beyond panic with these findings.

How did Trump do it? Besides Hillary Clinton’s historically soft support from blacks, Trump’s carefully scripted, well-timed speech said blacks were those who were suffering the most by the riots in Milwaukee: “The main victims of these riots are law-abiding African-American citizens living in these neighborhoods. It is their jobs, their homes, their schools and communities which will suffer as a result.”

Trump added, promising to restore order in the cities, “There is no compassion in tolerating lawless conduct. Crime and violence is an attack on the poor, and will never be accepted in a Trump Administration.”

The speech was also very pro-police. “The problem in our poorest communities is not that there are too many police, the problem is that there are not enough police. More law enforcement, more community engagement, more effective policing is what our country needs.”

And pro-family. “For every one violent protestor, there are a hundred moms and dads and kids on that same city block who just want to be able to sleep safely at night. My opponent would rather protect the offender than the victim.”

That was a bold message, and for a significant segment of blacks, it struck a major chord.

10 points. That’s unbelievable. But it happened. You can measure it.

In principle, if Trump were to deftly deliver the same message again to a wider audience, he could begin to consolidate a growing base of supporters among blacks that did not exist three days ago. Could he grow that base?

Because, if the result were to be replicated in cities across America, November might not even be close.

Who saw this coming?

Apparently, after a generation of failure in America’s inner cities, the events in Milwaukee have caused a huge crack in the traditional Democrat coalition that has included blacks since the Great Depression — and Trump is exploiting it by promising to restore law and order. He blamed Democrat one-party rule in the cities on the problems facing blacks today.

And it resonated.

Hillary Clinton is more vulnerable on law and order than anybody could have imagined among black voters who have been left behind by generations of failed big government policies.

If this becomes a trend, it could mean the beginning of a shift away from the Democrat electoral coalition. Keep watching the LA Times/USC poll. This is getting interesting.

Robert Romano is the senior editor of Americans for Limited Government.

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